The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has released its biannual "Coffee: World Markets and Trade" report, forecasting that global coffee production, exports, and consumption will all reach record highs in the 2026/27 coffee year. The projections indicate a significant increase in supply that is expected to help replenish global stocks despite surging demand.
According to the report, worldwide coffee production is projected to increase by 6% to 189.7 million 60-kilogram bags, driven by a record Arabica harvest of 105.9 million bags, a 12.1% rise. Robusta production is forecast to dip slightly by 0.7% to 83.8 million bags, which would still be its second-highest level on record. Global exports are anticipated to grow by 8.9% to 158.9 million bags, while global consumption is set to climb 3.6% to a new high of 179.7 million bags.
The production surge is led by a strong recovery in Brazil, where the harvest is forecast to jump 14.1% to 71.9 million bags, with its Arabica crop rebounding after several years of weather-related challenges. Vietnam and Ethiopia are also expected to see record outputs. For Colombia, the USDA projects production will rise to 13.4 million bags, with exports reaching a similar volume. In contrast, Indonesia's output is expected to decline due to excessive rainfall, while Central America and Mexico are forecast to see a collective increase.