Uganda's Ministry of Agriculture has moved to reassure coffee growers about recent price volatility, stating that the downturn is a temporary market adjustment. Officials attribute the softening prices to increased global supply entering the market, rather than a fundamental weakening of demand, even as the country's own export volumes declined in July.
The government statement pointed to the completion of Brazil's harvest and rising exports from Vietnam as key factors driving the downward price correction. This supply-side pressure has coincided with local challenges in Uganda, where drought and high temperatures in key growing regions reportedly reduced coffee quality and processing yields by an estimated 10%. Consequently, Uganda’s coffee export volume for July fell 15% compared to the same month last year, while export earnings dropped 18.6% from $250.7 million to $204.1 million.
Despite the recent dip, officials emphasized that farmgate prices remain stronger than a year ago and are well above the sector's break-even point. In early September, Robusta FAQ prices were reported between UGX 11,500 and UGX 12,000 (approx. $2.92-$3.30) per kilogram. The government is urging farmers to maintain quality standards and avoid harvesting immature cherries, noting that buyers are offering premiums for well-processed coffee. Authorities expect prices to stabilize and recover over the next six months, supported by ongoing global demand.