Coffee futures markets continued their upward trend in a recent mid-week session, with New York marking its second straight gain and London its fifth. The ICE Arabica contract for September delivery closed at 326.90 cents per pound, a 0.9% increase. Meanwhile, the ICE Robusta contract for November delivery climbed 0.8% to settle at $3,884, its highest point in several weeks.
The primary drivers behind the market movement are environmental. Analysts point to a reduced likelihood of rain in Vietnam's Central Highlands, a key Robusta-growing region, as a significant factor. This immediate weather concern is compounded by broader anxiety over a developing El Niño event, which could disrupt global coffee production in the upcoming season. Adding to supply-side pressures, certified Arabica stocks continued to decline, falling to 251,417 bags.
Export data from major producers presents a complex picture. Vietnam's customs authority reported a 43.3% year-on-year surge in coffee exports for July, a trend possibly accelerated by European buyers securing inventory before the EU Deforestation-free Regulation (EUDR) takes effect. Conversely, while Colombia's National Federation of Coffee Growers announced a 43% year-on-year production increase for June, the country's exports for the first half of 2026 fell by 18%. This export slowdown is attributed in part to a strong Colombian peso, which has reduced revenue for producers and encouraged them to moderate sales.