Global coffee prices experienced a significant rally in July 2026, fueled by mounting concerns over supply chain constraints, adverse weather in Brazil, and a strengthening El Niño forecast. According to the International Coffee Organization (ICO), its benchmark Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) climbed 15.4% over the previous month to an average of 287.26 US cents per pound. The market saw extreme volatility, including two of its largest single-day gains in over two decades on July 6 and July 9.
The price surge was most pronounced in the Arabica market, widening the differential with Robusta. The ICO reported that Colombian Milds led the gains, increasing 18.1% to 383.39 cents/lb, while Brazilian Naturals rose 17.9% to 320.69 cents/lb. In contrast, Robusta prices saw a more modest 9.1% increase to 184.78 cents/lb. This divergence was linked to tightening Arabica availability, as US-certified Arabica stocks fell 30% during July to their lowest level since January 2024.
Fundamental supply-side issues underpinned the rally. Unseasonably wet weather in Brazil delayed the 2026/27 harvest, with collection reported to be 64% complete by mid-July, lagging behind both the previous year's pace and the five-year average. Adding to market uncertainty, the US Climate Prediction Center projected a 97% probability of El Niño conditions persisting into early 2027, threatening potential disruptions to future crops across key growing regions in South America and Asia.