The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) has issued an urgent call for anticipatory action in West and Central Africa to mitigate the growing effects of the El Niño weather phenomenon. According to the agency's sub-regional hub in Dakar, the impacts are already being felt, with an estimated 98% to 100% probability that the event will persist into 2027, potentially expanding areas at risk of rainfall deficits.
However, meteorological forecasting for the region remains complex and varied. While the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Europe's Copernicus Climate Change Service anticipate below-normal rainfall from June to September, the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) projects a different outcome. The NMME model suggests a wetter-than-average central-eastern Sahel but a drier Gulf of Guinea, a key agricultural zone.
For agricultural sectors, including coffee and cocoa, these climate risks present a dual threat. The UNDP specifically recommends dual-track monitoring in the region's coffee and cocoa belt to prepare for both flood-related crop diseases and significant drought stress. The agency also notes that climate-related pressures act as a “threat multiplier” on existing conflicts in areas like the Lake Chad Basin and Central Sahel, adding another layer of risk to supply chain stability and humanitarian access.