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November 6, 2026 · Daily Coffee News

Costa Rica Lowers Regional Coffee Harvest Estimates Amid El Niño Effects

Costa Rica's coffee institute, ICAFE, has lowered regional harvest estimates by 10% to 15%, citing irregular rainfall and heat from El Niño that are affecting coffee development, quality, and weight.

Photo: Flux

Costa Rica's national coffee institute, ICAFE, has revised its harvest forecasts downward for some growing regions, citing adverse weather conditions linked to the El Niño climate pattern. The institute observed potential reductions of 10% to 15% from its initial estimates for the current crop cycle.

According to ICAFE officials, the revised projections are a response to irregular rainfall and higher-than-average temperatures impacting coffee farms. These conditions have reportedly disrupted key stages of crop development, including fertilization processes, and are raising concerns about the final weight and quality of the green coffee beans intended for export.

It is important to note that these figures represent a reduction from earlier expectations for the current harvest, rather than a confirmed decline in total production compared to the previous year. The updated guidance from ICAFE presents a more cautious outlook than a recent forecast from the USDA, which had projected modest growth for the country's coffee output.

FAQ

Estimates are being lowered due to irregular rainfall and heat associated with the El Niño phenomenon, which has disrupted fertilization and affected coffee bean development.

According to the national coffee institute, ICAFE, regional harvest estimates have been reduced by 10% to 15% from earlier projections for the current season.

Not necessarily. The adjustment reflects a reduction from previous forecasts for the current crop, not a confirmed year-over-year decline in total production volume.

Source: Daily Coffee News

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