Peru's coffee production is forecast to remain nearly flat for the 2026/27 market year, with a marginal 0.3% increase bringing the total to 4.78 million 60-kilogram bags. This stability, detailed in a recent USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report, follows a significant recovery in the previous year and comes despite ongoing structural and agronomic issues facing the country's coffee sector.
The forecast is nearly identical to the estimated 4.76 million bags from the 2025/26 crop, which had rebounded sharply from 4.12 million bags in 2024/25. The slight production increase is attributed to improved farm management and a 1.5% expansion in harvested area to 340,000 hectares. The country's primary coffee-growing regions remain Cajamarca (22%), San Martín (20%), and Junín (19%), with over 90% of coffee grown by smallholders on farms smaller than five hectares.
Despite the stable outlook, the sector faces significant headwinds. Coffee leaf rust continues to impact an estimated 40% of the crop, and coffee borer infestations remain a persistent threat, particularly at lower altitudes. High production costs, with labor and fertilizers as the main expenses, are compounded by limited access to credit for smallholders who often lack formal land titles. Furthermore, poor road infrastructure and inadequate storage facilities in key regions continue to hinder supply chain efficiency.
Exports are also forecast to hold steady at 4.55 million bags, with the United States, Germany, and Belgium as the top destinations. Peru maintains its position as the world's leading exporter of organic coffee. However, industry groups have raised concerns about the European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), noting that many smallholders lack the land titles and farm data required for compliance, which could threaten access to the critical EU market.