Global coffee prices experienced a significant rally in July 2026, marking the largest single-month increase in several years. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) reported that its Composite Indicator Price (I-CIP) averaged 287.26 US cents per pound, a 15.4% jump from the previous month. The surge is attributed to a combination of factors, including mounting concerns over supply availability, unfavorable weather in Brazil, and shrinking certified Arabica inventories.
The price increases were observed across all coffee groups, though Arabicas led the rally. According to the ICO's market report, Colombian Milds rose by 18.1% to 383.39 cents/lb, while Brazilian Naturals climbed 17.9% to 320.69 cents/lb. Other Milds saw a 16.5% increase to 358.65 cents/lb. In contrast, Robusta prices experienced a more moderate rise of 9.1%, reaching 184.78 cents/lb. A key driver for the Arabica price pressure was a 30% drop in certified stocks in the United States, which fell to 290,000 bags—the lowest level recorded since January 2024.
Market anxiety has been further fueled by developments in Brazil, where the 2026/27 harvest has been slowed by unusually wet conditions. By mid-July, the harvest was only 64% complete, lagging behind the five-year average of 70%. Compounding these immediate concerns is the high probability of a major El Niño event, with forecasts indicating a 97% chance of it continuing into early 2027. Despite the price volatility and supply worries, global green bean exports remained stable, increasing by 0.8% year-on-year in June to 10.48 million bags.