Ethiopia's green coffee production is projected to climb 4.7% to 12.1 million 60-kilogram bags in the 2026/27 market year, according to a recent annual report from the USDA's Foreign Agricultural Service. The increase is attributed to improved yields, favorable weather, and a modest expansion in harvested area. Exports are also forecast to rise by 2.4% to 7.13 million bags, with China emerging as a significant and fast-growing market for Ethiopian coffee.
The forecast production of 12.1 million bags marks an increase from the estimated 11.56 million bags in 2025/26. This growth is supported by a 1.3% rise in harvested area to 800,000 hectares. The sector remains dominated by an estimated 5.9 million smallholder farmers, who account for approximately 90% of national output. Productivity gains are being driven by agricultural practices such as the stumping of old trees, which can reportedly triple yields within four years, and the distribution of over 50 improved, disease-resistant coffee varieties by the Ethiopian Agricultural Research Institute.
Signaling a major policy shift, the Ethiopian government is actively encouraging modernization and foreign investment. Authorities have allocated 100,000 hectares of land specifically for private-sector, large-scale coffee development, a move that could expand the country's commercial farm base by 70%. Concurrently, the government is allowing vetted foreign companies to export raw coffee directly and is developing a national traceability system to meet new EU regulations. These initiatives point toward a more formalized, traceable, and better-financed export channel.