Global coffee futures prices have declined for a third consecutive day, with both Arabica and Robusta markets closing lower in late July. The ICE Arabica contract for September delivery dropped nearly 2.3% to close at 309.40 cents per pound, a three-week low. In London, September ICE Robusta futures experienced a similar fall of just over 2.3%, settling at $3,708 per tonne. The downward pressure on prices is largely attributed to a new market report released this week by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The USDA's biannual World Production, Markets, and Trade Report projects record levels for global coffee production, exports, and consumption for the 2026/27 marketing year. This forecast of abundant supply has outweighed concerns over dwindling ICE Arabica certified stocks, which recently fell to 315,883 bags. Meanwhile, the physical market in Brazil remains slow, with market analysts reporting strong buyer interest but a reluctance from producers to sell amidst high price volatility, preferring to wait for clearer market signals.
In a separate but significant development for the global coffee sector, the European Union has officially signed the International Coffee Agreement (ICA) 2022. As the world's largest coffee market, the EU's formal adoption of the agreement is a major step for international trade cooperation. According to the European Coffee Federation, EU member countries imported nearly 48.3 million bags of coffee in 2024. The ICA 2022 is the eighth such agreement administered by the International Coffee Organization, updated from the 2007 version to address modern market challenges.