The chairman of Italian roasting company Lavazza has warned that the global coffee market is facing a sustained period of price instability that could last for years. This ongoing volatility is expected to delay any significant reduction in coffee prices, despite industry forecasts of a strong upcoming harvest in Brazil.
This assessment follows continued sharp swings in Arabica futures. On July 6, the ICE Futures US market experienced a 16.2% single-day price surge, reaching a five-month high. While hopes for a large Brazilian crop had initially suggested prices might retreat from recent record highs, market sentiment has been tempered by several factors, including harvest delays, limited global inventories, and renewed concerns about the potential impact of El Niño conditions on growing regions.
According to the industry executive, restoring market confidence and achieving stability will require substantial and consistent production from the world's largest coffee growers. He stated that the market needs “a couple of very strong crops from Brazil and Vietnam” to rebuild depleted global stocks. He also noted that while a good harvest may be underway, there is not yet definitive evidence that it will meet the high expectations set at the end of 2025, suggesting uncertainty will continue to be a defining market feature.