Coffee futures have corrected downwards following recent volatility, as optimistic forecasts for a record-breaking Brazilian crop in 2026/27 temper market sentiment. Despite reports of a rain-delayed harvest in key growing regions, a strong supply outlook is contributing to selling pressure on both the New York and London exchanges. The ICE Arabica contract for September delivery saw a 2.5% drop on July 8, 2026, with London’s Robusta futures falling 3.4%.
A consolidated analysis by Costa Rica's Coffee Institute (Icafé), which averaged projections from 14 different public and private sources, places the median forecast for Brazil's current crop at 72.15 million 60kg bags. This figure represents a significant 15.7% increase over the 62.33 million bags from the 2025/26 cycle and would surpass the previous record from 2020/21. Individual estimates vary widely, from the Brazilian government agency Conab's conservative 66.70 million bags to a high of 75.90 million from Marex Group. The average forecast for Arabica is 47.48 million bags, while Robusta (Conilon) is projected at 24.67 million bags.
On the ground, the harvest is proceeding slower than average. An estimate from Faemg Senar indicates that harvesting in Sul de Minas, Brazil’s largest Arabica region, is only 30% complete, compared to 52% at the same point last year. This delay is attributed to unusually heavy rains, with Fundação Procafé noting that the Varginha region received double its historical average rainfall for June. While the moisture has hampered current harvesting and drying operations, it is also reported to be beneficial for tree health and vegetative growth, supporting positive expectations for the next crop cycle.