Vietnam's coffee output is projected to increase for the third consecutive year, reaching 32.5 million 60-kilogram bags in the 2026/27 market year, according to a recent forecast from the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS). The 2.5% year-over-year growth is attributed to expanded Robusta cultivation, which was encouraged by high prices in 2024 and 2025. Exports are also anticipated to grow, though recent price declines are influencing the speed at which stocks are being released.
The production increase is driven almost entirely by Robusta, which is forecast to climb 3% to 31.4 million bags. This growth is supported by a 2.2% expansion in harvested area to 644,000 hectares. In contrast, Arabica production is expected to decline from 1.2 million to 1.1 million bags. Total exports for the 2026/27 cycle are projected to rise 1.6% to 28.95 million bags, with green coffee accounting for 25.4 million bags of that total. Domestic consumption is also on the rise, forecast to hit 5 million bags.
Despite the positive production outlook, the report highlights several industry challenges. An estimated 30% of the country's coffee trees are over 20 years old and require replanting to maintain productivity. Farmers are also contending with rising operational expenses, with fertilizer and fuel costs reportedly increasing by about 30% from the previous year. Furthermore, a recent drop in domestic Robusta prices from their peaks is prompting farmers and exporters to release inventories more quickly, supporting near-term export volumes but creating uncertainty.