Climate change is creating significant challenges for Arabica coffee farmers in Minas Gerais, Brazil's primary growing region, with increasingly frequent droughts, heatwaves, and frosts impacting production. According to local producers and agricultural technicians, five consecutive Arabica harvests have been affected by adverse weather, leading to lower yields, reduced bean quality, and growing concerns about the long-term economic viability of coffee farming in the area.
A 2024 study by Brazil’s Federal University of Itajubá (Unifei) quantifies the risk, projecting that between 35% and 75% of the country's current Arabica-growing lands could become unsuitable for cultivation by the end of the century due to intensifying heat and water stress. These production challenges have contributed to a tighter global supply and higher prices. Despite a 20% drop in shipments between 2024 and 2025, Brazil recorded record coffee export revenue of US$15.5 billion last year, according to industry reports.
In response, smallholders are implementing adaptation strategies to mitigate climate effects. Some are planting shade trees like cedar and mahogany or using cover crops to improve soil moisture retention. Others are replacing older plants with newer, more resilient Arabica varieties such as Arara and Acauã Novo, which are bred for greater resistance to water stress and disease. However, the rising costs of production and adaptation are squeezing profits, causing some farmers to abandon organic methods in favor of conventional farming to boost productivity.