London Robusta futures closed lower in the final session of the week, while the New York market for Arabica was closed for a public holiday. Market sentiment is being shaped by ongoing monitoring of weather in Brazil and the pace of its harvest, alongside new production forecasts for other key origins like Ethiopia.
In Brazil, the 2026/27 coffee harvest was 39% complete as of June 17, according to consultancy Safras & Mercado. This pace is slightly behind last year's 43% and the five-year average for the same date. The Arabica harvest is notably slower, at 29% complete compared to 34% last year, while the Robusta harvest is slightly ahead at 59% complete versus 58% in the previous year. Safras & Mercado projects a total Brazilian crop of 75.65 million 60kg bags.
Meanwhile, a new report from the USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) projects that Ethiopia's coffee production will reach a record 12.1 million bags in the 2026/27 marketing year. Exports are forecast to hit 7.13 million bags, driven by strong demand for Ethiopian Arabicas, particularly from China, which benefits from tariff-free access. The USDA report also included a significant downward revision for Ethiopia's 2025/26 export estimate, lowering it from 7.8 million to just under 7 million bags.